Trump’s hawkish stance with Iran could prove too much for an already fragile world economyAn oil price surge prompted by trouble in the Middle East inevitably conjures up memories of late 1973, when a dramatic rise in the cost of crude ended the long postwar global economic boom.No question, the embargo organised by Opec during the Yom Kippur war was a game changer. The west had got used to oil prices...
The China-US trade war could derail the world economy but central banks lack tools to fight any crisisLast summer, my colleague Brunello Rosa and I identified 10 potential downside risks that could trigger a US and global recession in 2020. Nine of them are still in play today.Many involve the United States. Trade wars with China and other countries, along with restrictions on migration, foreign direct...
It uses different rules to other countries to measure business cycles and recessionsThis month marks the tenth full year of the US economic recovery that began in June 2009. Back then, a “trough” in business activity signified the end of the Great Recession that followed the 2007-8 global financial crisis. The current expansion has continued, uninterrupted, ever since.The best explanation for the...
Beneath the low unemployment figures and long-awaited wage growth lie risks that can’t be ignoredData released over the next few months will show that the current US economic expansion is the longest on record. But while the US continues to outperform other advanced economies, this success has yet to dispel many Americans’ persistent sense of economic insecurity and frustration; nor does it alleviate...
Political interference with fiscal policy is likelier if central banks shun QE in the next recessionThe policy interest rates of advanced-country central banks are stuck at uncomfortably low levels. And not just for the moment: a growing body of evidence suggests that this awkward condition is likely to persist. Inflation in the US, Europe and Japan continues to undershoot official targets. Measures...
Unions should draw up a Contract for the American Worker and make it clear they will only support candidates who endorse itDonald Trump will no doubt tell the world he deserves to be re-elected because the economy is “the best ever”. Never mind that nearly 40% of Americans say they can’t afford to pay an unexpected $400 bill, and that nearly one in four Americans skipped some form of needed medical...
Dollar slides after America only created 75,000 new jobs last month, weaker than the 175,000 expectedLatest: US job creation unexpectedly weak last monthNFP up by 75,000 in MayEarnings growth drops to 3.1%Jobless rate at 49-year low of 3.6%Will Fed respond by cutting interest rates? 4.14pm BST Time for a recapJob creation slowed sharply in America last month. Just 75,000 new jobs were created in May,...
Job creation numbers came in below expectations, causing economists to predict that Fed will begin cutting interest ratesGrowth in the US employment market decelerated sharply in May, as the economy added just 75,000 jobs – holding the unemployment rate steady at 3.6%, matching its lowest level since 1969. Related: Trump lashes out at Pelosi for saying she wants to see him 'in prison' – live Continue...
Fund says economic benefits of decade-long expansion have not been widely sharedThe increasingly polarised US economy has meant that a record-breaking period of growth has been accompanied by falling life expectancy, high levels of poverty and stagnant living standards for average Americans, the International Monetary Fund has said.In its annual health check on the world’s biggest economy, the IMF...
French government blamed as €33bn deal to create world’s third-largest carmaker stallsThe proposed €33bn (£29bn) merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault has collapsed after an intervention from the French government, Renault’s biggest shareholder.Fiat Chrysler, an Italian-American company, withdrew from a 50-50 merger proposal with its French rival after a board meeting on Wednesday. A deal would...
Trump has said a 5% tariff on Mexican goods will go into effect Monday if no agreement is reachedSign up for the US briefing and get a new perspective 1.44am BST 12.30am BST Here’s a dispatch from David Agren, our correspondent in Mexico:Mexico’s foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard said talks will continue tomorrow, but that US officials focused more on migration matters than tariffs today. That’s...
Trump administration reportedly considered taxing imports of the metal over concerns they had grown too quickly The Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison has downplayed – but not denied – speculation the United States considered placing trade tariffs on Australian aluminium imports last week.The New York Times reported that the Trump administration had discussed placing tariffs on Australian...
Mulvaney: ‘We intentionally left the declaration sort of ad hoc’Mexico indicates concessions on migrants issue to avoid tariffsDonald Trump is “deadly serious” about slapping tariffs on imports from Mexico, his chief of staff said on Sunday, even though the president “intentionally left the declaration sort of ad hoc” amidst fears of damage to the US economy if he follows through on his...
Democrats are turning a president enraged at the blocking of his border wall into an unhinged beast Donald Trump’s threats of higher import tariffs against Mexican goods can be better understood not as an escalation of his trade war with the rest of the world, but as the act of a desperate man, prepared to upset most US business leaders to achieve his aim of building a border wall with the country’s...
Contract workers prop up big earners but under Trump’s anti-labor administration are ruthlessly exploited themselvesUber just filed its first quarterly report as a publicly traded company. Although it lost $1bn, investors may still do well because the losses appear to be declining. Related: The Uber drivers forced to sleep in parking lots to make a decent living The standard economic measures –...
Andrés Manuel López Obrador hints at concession to USTalks over US president threat in Washington next week Mexico’s president hinted on Saturday that his country could tighten migration controls in order to defuse Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Mexican goods. Andrés Manuel López Obrador also said he expected “good results” from talks in Washington next week. Related: 'No idea...
The New York congresswoman returned to a restaurant in Queens on Friday, seeking to highlight the plight of workers she knowsAs she returned to New York to waitress and bartend for the first time since being elected to Congress, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said the federal tipped minimum wage was tantamount to “indentured servitude”. Related: 'Leader of the resistance': Democratic 2020 candidates...
After 5% tariff announced, president tweets ‘Mexico has taken advantage of the US for decades’Donald Trump has defended his decision to impose new tariffs on Mexico as stock markets worldwide were rattled by fears of an escalation in trade tensions.“Mexico has taken advantage of the United States for decades,” Trump tweeted. “Because of the Dems, our Immigration Laws are BAD. Mexico makes...
US to place 5% tariff on goods as Mexico president says ‘social problems aren’t resolved with taxes’ Donald Trump has announced that he is placing a 5% tariff on all Mexican imports to pressure the country to do more to curb immigration into the US, in a surprise move that has rattled markets.The US president said the tariff would gradually increase “until the illegal immigration problem is...
World’s second-largest economy is not afraid of a trade war, says senior diplomatUK car production plunges amid ‘untold damage’ of Brexit date chaosDe La Rue boss leaving after losing post-Brexit blue passport contract 3.14pm BST The rhetoric in the trade dispute between China and the US may be ramping up, but could it be coming at the wrong time for Donald Trump?This week China has used its...
